On August 16th, desperate Afghanis were trying to flee Kabul by the thousands. A few poor souls thought it a better choice to hang from the landing gear of a departing C-17 aircraft than to face the rage of the Taliban. This day and the lead-up to it will be remembered for decades to come as one of the greatest political debacles and mishandlings of foreign policy in history.
This newsletter, however, is not about politics or Afghanistan. This disaster was simply another illustration of so-called experts getting it dead wrong. This is not about one political party, or one year in time.
Do you believe our “leaders” are nailing it when it comes to Covid-19? How about the Dotcom bust? Supposedly “no one” saw that coming. Then there was 9-11, which took our elected officials and the intelligence community completely by surprise. They didn’t see the signs and couldn’t connect the dots, leading to the worst attack on American soil since World War II. Then in the 2008 financial crisis, our politicians and Wall Street bankers were saying “no one saw this coming” again, as $10 trillion dollars of global wealth evaporated. Yet Wall Street CEOs awarded themselves bonuses while the middle class paid the price through a “lost decade” of decreased quality of life and uncertainty.
Natural disasters have repeatedly exposed the Government's lack of preparedness and incompetence. Look at what is going on in Del Rio, Texas. I could go on and on. How many disasters and debacles can you think of where the elites minding the store were instead asleep at the wheel?
With this pattern in mind, how confident are you when the personalities on CNBC and at the Fed assure us that the economy and stock market are strong and the good times will continue to roll through 2022? How much faith do you have in Jerome Powell’s umpteenth press conference assuring us that inflation is temporary, transitory, healthy, or even something that isn’t really happening at all?
To be fair, these are extremely complex issues. There are innumerable factors at work at all times, making these issues and the future unknowable. The hubris comes in believing, or pretending, that they are.
When it comes to wealth planning, you can do what the mainstream does – hope for the best and fear the worst. The events described above are “Black Swan” events. These are events that come as a surprise, have major effects, and are always accompanied by politicians, CEOs, and watchdog groups denying any accountability whatsoever. They are occurring with increasing frequency, greater severity, and each time with grave economic consequences for the unprepared.
There is an alternative! You could adapt to the times and learn not only how to protect yourself against all the Black Swan events, but how to position yourself to take advantage of them! If you believe, like me, that we’re in an era of increased volatility, would you like it to work for you or against you?
Maybe it’s time to consider another strategy. Will you wait until before or after the next global lock-down, market crash, debt crisis, or unknowable Black Swan event? Contact us!
Why Everything Will Remain Volatile – September 2021 (Pdf Download)
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Thank you for your time and for taking control of your financial future!
Sincerely,
Sam Arieff
Arieff Consulting
(904) 478-0102
* Dividends are not guaranteed. However, companies we use have paid dividends without fair for more than 100 consecutive years.
Disclaimer: This newsletter represents the opinion of Arieff Consulting, Inc, and does not constitute financial, tax, or legal advice.